Norwich v Sunderland (1245 BST)
This is a huge, huge game for both clubs. Sunderland, who are 1/4 to be relegated, could close to within a point of Norwich - 19/10 - with a game in hand. I've been banging the Mackems' drum since Sam Allardyce took over and backed them to pick up a point against Leicester last week but there's only so much that the Dudley man can do when faced with finishing of the quality of that provided by Jack Rodwell and Fabio Borini. They created more than enough chances to secure a point last week but that has been a recurring theme in recent weeks and of relegated sides over the years. The game was up when Danny Drinkwater stole possession in midfield and played a long ball which caught Younes Kaboul asleep and, again, similar defensive mistakes have not been isolated. The Canaries extricated themselves from an horrendous run which saw them pick up two points out of a possible 30 - including defeat at Aston Villa - with victories over West Brom and Newcastle and another three points here will make it feel as though they are over the line. They have a decent record against the Black Cats, including a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture, and are deserving favourites in a match which may well be settled by which side, or which player, best holds their nerve. Norwich's home form has been decent (5-5-6) but the possible absence of Timm Klose is a huge concern such has been the German's impact on their defence while he also popped up with the first goal against Newcastle. That was the first of two provided by a rearguard which has chipped in with reasonable regularity to back up their strikers while Robbie Brady and Wes Hoolahan provide a threat from midfield and it may be worth chancing Brady each-way at 14/1 to get on the scoresheet. The young Irishman has been playing in a more advanced position lately which has seen him collect two of his three league goals in his last seven games and he has the confidence not to disappear in a game of this magnitude. Backing both teams to score at a shade of odds-on is worth considering with Norwich having conceded at least twice in five of their last six at Carrow Road while Sunderland, for all their shortcomings, have failed to score away only once since the end of November and those figures naturally bring over 2.5 goals into consideration at 6/5. As far as the match result is concerned, I'm leaning towards Norwich given their recent run but both teams to score is a bigger price than I expected and could be the safer call in a tense encounter.
Verdict: Norwich 2 Sunderland 1 (IO)
Opta facts:
•Norwich City have lost none of their last five Barclays Premier League meetings with Sunderland (W3 D2 L0).
•There has been a red card in three of the last four Premier League meetings between the Black Cats and the Canaries.
•Sam Allardyce's side are now winless in six Premier League matches and have picked up just four points in total in these games (W0 D4 L2).
•The Black Cats have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League away games.
•Norwich City's last 13 Premier League goals have been scored by 10 different players - with none of these being own goals.
•Jermain Defoe has scored 12 Premier League goals this season - no other Sunderland player currently in their squad has scored more than three (van Aanholt & Borini).
•Defoe has scored nine goals in 13 Premier League away appearances this season for the Black Cats.
Newcastle v Swansea (1500)
On paper, a home clash with Swansea is just about as good as it gets if what you need is wins and nothing less. The Swans are 16th in the away table, sit 12th overall without designs on the top 10 or fear from those behind, and essentially look the classic nothing-to-play-for sitting ducks. But so poor have Newcastle's performances been of late, bar a good effort at a nervy Leicester, that they simply can't be backed at 7/5 and the bet just has to be the away win at upwards of 2/1. Swansea, after all, are in great form. They beat Chelsea 1-0 last week, their fourth victory in six and a run triggered by a 2-1 victory at Arsenal. It seems clear that performance spurred them on to a late-season run and, unlike some of those around them, Swansea are at the beginning of a new era under Francesco Guidolin so there are players here who are desperate to impress. One of them is Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has scored in nine of his 14 appearances since the turn of the year and increasingly looks one of the star players in the division outside the traditional bunch and runaway league leaders. He's not far short of 3/1 to score again here and 8/1 to score first; the latter is particularly generous on figures alone given that he's struck first in five of those 14 appearances, while the former is further supported by his goal in Swansea's 3-2 win in this fixture last season. In fact, Swansea have found trips to the north east very much to their liking - they've won three and drawn one of their four Premier League trips to Newcastle. Again, this suggests the layers have it all wrong in making Newcastle clear favourites, especially considering for all that they're better at St James' Park, they have won only four of 15 league games in front of their loyal support this season. The difficulty here is settling on the right option. Swansea are 9/2 to win to nil and 5/1 to win with Sigurdsson scoring, while that 9/4 about them simply winning looks very solid. But I'll take 7/2 that they win by one. Swansea simply don't blast teams away and since winning the reverse 2-0, all nine victories in the league have come by one goal. That's a remarkable run and extends back to last season, too. In all, 17 of their last 20 Premier League wins have been by the minimum margin which makes the decision pretty straightforward, particularly when you throw in the fact that all three of those Premier League wins have been, you guessed it, by one goal.
Verdict: Newcastle 1 Swansea 2 (JB)
Opta facts:
•Newcastle United have won just one of their nine Barclays Premier League games against Swansea City (W1 D2 L6).
•Papiss Demba Cisse has scored four goals in five Premier League appearances against Swansea.
•Swansea City have won just three of their last 17 Premier League away matches (W3 D5 L9).
•The Swans have lost none of their last four Premier League trips to St James Park, including winning the last three in a row.
•Newcastle's 25 point tally after 32 games in their worst at this stage of a Premier League season; surpassing their previous lowest in 2008-09 (30 points) when they were relegated.
•Newcastle have conceded three or more goals in 10 Premier League games this season, a joint-league high with Aston Villa.
•Newcastle have won just one point in their last seven Premier League matches (W0 D1 L6).