To hit Rafa Benitez’s mid-season target of 20 points, Newcastle United must find five points from their next four games.
That’s two wins – or a win and two draws – from home games against Leicester, Everton and away matches at Arsenal and West Ham United. It doesn’t feel like it’s very likely right now.
Steve McClaren’s ailing Magpies had 13 points after 15 games but improved to 16 points after 16. It is alarming to think that a defeat against Leicester – who have found form recently – will mean Benitez’s Newcastle side are tracking below McClaren’s running total in a season that ended in relegation.
The context is that a league that revels in being unpredictable has been anything but recently. This is a different year and the challenge is going to be different. Of the last 23 games between teams in the current top five and the rest of the division, all 23 have been won by teams in the top five. There are two festive games Newcastle must win: West Ham and Brighton. Six points from those will give Benitez plenty of breathing space.
The league table reflects the disparity in class. Even when they conjured back-to-back wins against Liverpool and Spurs, McClaren’s mob were only two points off the bottom three. Newcastle currently have a five-point cushion that has survived a bruising run of six defeats from their last seven, which is a pleasing antidote to some of the negativity of their recent run. With Swansea taking on West Brom and Huddersfield playing Brighton, at least two of the teams below them are going to make up ground.
Still, there remain a lot of struggling teams with limited resources. It is not just Newcastle groping for form.
Which midfield combo would you go for against Leicester?
Hayden-Shelvey
Hayden-Merino
Merino-Shelvey
Shelvey-Diame
Merino-Diame
Diame-Hayden
Some of those clubs will use the January transfer window to affect a change. Benitez’s uncertainty over exactly what he’ll have to play with in that month suggests Newcastle’s hopes of making a decisive statement in the New Year window are hanging in the balance. That is a worry looming over the horizon but with eight games in the next month, United have some more pressing concerns.
One way or another Newcastle need to turn it around quickly – and the improvement needs to come from within. Benitez understands that, which is why a manager whose team selections had a familiarity about them earlier in the season has started to experiment with personnel and systems in recent weeks.
He moved away from the sturdy 4-2-3-1 that gave Newcastle’s defensive strength because he didn’t feel they were scoring enough goals. But since that change, the team have shipped goals – 12 in four games.
The tinkering on Saturday was a sign of a manager divining for a solution in a limited squad. It isn’t a good look for a manager who insists that his “process” will bear fruit in the end but it’s understandable: sticking with the same XI, system and philosophy is simply not working. A new “solution” is the only way out of this rut.
Benitez’s experimenting – which, mystifyingly, does not seem to include inserting an international striker in Aleksandar Mitrovic into their striker conundrum – saw Matt Ritchie at left-back and Mo Diame in the midfield anchor role on Saturday. They were two big calls that seemed to be paying off when Newcastle started with real authority. But by full-time, they looked like calls not worth repeating for the games that are coming up.
With two games against mid-table opposition approaching, it feels like time to reunite a midfield pairing that has been used just once: Jonjo Shelvey and Mikel Merino.
For all the debate about United’s defensive errors or lack of cutting edge, it is in the midfield engine room where Benitez has done the most shuffling. In 16 matches this season, Newcastle have used six different combinations. And Benitez’s belief that balance is necessary is reflected by him picking Isaac Hayden and Shelvey five times and Merino and Hayden five times.
Nearly every time either Merino or Shelvey play, they are accompanied by a water carrier. Twice Diame has done the role with Shelvey; on Saturday it was Diame and Merino who got the nod. With two home games and opposition likely to come at Newcastle, it could be time for United to unburden themselves and give Merino and Shelvey another go.
Benitez gave this duo an airing against Liverpool and Newcastle earned a good point against an Anfield outfit that dominated the match but were concerned enough with United fielding two creative players to deploy one of their own players deeper.
No doubt the Newcastle manager will have to pay heed to the pace and industry of Leicester engine room but a Shelvey and Merino combination might allow United to wrestle back some of the midfield ascendancy that they have been missing since the first half of the Bournemouth defeat. Since then Newcastle have found themselves playing largely on the back foot and they’re not a good enough side to avoid making the sort of mistakes that allowed Chelsea a relatively straightforward passage back into the game on Saturday.
It was a surprise not to see Shelvey start at Stamford Bridge after his smart cameo at the Hawthorns and given Mo Diame’s continuing struggle to prove he belongs at Premier League level, his exile will surely come to an end on Saturday. Merino, good in spells against Chelsea, does not deserve to make way. He, too, has the pleasing tendency of retaining the ball – something that Newcastle have not done enough of in recent games, where their passing has become careless.
It feels like the key to a black and white revival is finding a way to integrate Newcastle’s most technically gifted players into the team from the start. The Merino and Shelvey axis is something to build on.
Every game Diame has started, United have lost!
NUFC midfield combinations so far:
Hayden - Shelvey
Played 5, Won 1, Lost 3, Drew 1
Not much success with this pairing. United’s only win was when Merino came off the bench to head the winner.
Hayden - Merino
Played 5, Won 3, Lost 2
The most successful combination statistically. The three wins in a row came when these two were paired together.
Merino - Shelvey
Played 1, Drawn 1
Surprisingly paired together against Liverpool, they lasted 74 minutes before Benitez went for Mo Diame. A good draw against Liverpool.
Shelvey - Diame
Played 2, Lost 2
Defeats to Burnley and Watford when this combination was tried. Diame struggled against Burnley.
Merino - Diame
Played 1, Lost 1
Another combination but Newcastle found it tough at Stamford Bridge – unsurprisingly.