CURRENT LEAGUE TABLE (all clubs have 11 games left)
14 Newcastle United 30 -10
15 Sunderland 29 -7
16 Southampton 27 -11
17 Wigan Athletic 24 -18
18 Aston Villa 24 -26
19 Reading 23 -18
20 Queens Park R 17 -24
Of the top five clubs, all chasing Champions League qualification (Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs), Newcastle have 2 to play; QPR 1; Reading 3, Aston Villa 3, Wigan 3, Sunderland 3, and Southampton 2.
Everyone is chasing the 40pt mark, but that doesn't always guarantee safety.
Glenn Roeder's West Ham went down with 42 in 2003; Bolton with 40 (1997); and the very first Premiership season Crystal Palace went down with 49 (but there were 22 clubs in the league that season).
But, for the sake of argument, if 40 is the cut of point, QPR haven't a hope in hell. 17pts from 27 games so far; they won't get 23pts in the final 11 games.
So QPR are down - period!
Newcastle need ten points, and no-one in their right mind is going to suggest we won't get them. From those fixtures we got 15pts from ten of the games last season, and obviously we didn't play West Ham, so that's at least five points to spare.
As for the rest, there are going to be some major 6-point key games. Those are highlighted in the fixtures.
Goal-difference will be major, and Sunderland's -7 is just as good as point, compared to Villa's -26 and Wigan's -18.
NEWCASTLE (10pts to reach 40)
Swansea City (A)
Stoke City (H)
Wigan Athletic (A)
Manchester City (A)
Fulham (H)
Sunderland (H)
WBA (A)
Liverpool (H)
West Ham Utd (A)
QPR (A)
Arsenal (H)
QPR (23pts needed)
Southampton (A)
Sunderland (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Fulham (A)
Wigan Athletic (H)
Everton (A)
Stoke City (H)
Reading (A)
Arsenal (H)
Newcastle Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
READING (17pts needed)
Everton (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Man Utd (A)
Arsenal (A)
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (H)
Norwich (A)
QPR (H)
Fulham (A)
Man City (H)
West Ham (A)
ASTON VILLA (16pts needed)
Man City (H)
Reading (A)
QPR (H)
Liverpool (H)
Stoke (A)
Fulham (H)
Man Utd (A)
Sunderland (H)
Norwich (A)
Chelsea (H)
Wigan (A)
WIGAN (16pts needed)
Liverpool (H)
Man City (A)
Newcastle (H)
Norwich (H)
QPR (A)
Swansea (H)
West Ham (A)
Tottenham (H)
West Brom (A)
Arsenal (A)
Aston Villa (H)
SUNDERLAND (11pts needed)
Fulham (H)
QPR (A)
Norwich (H)
Man Utd (H)
Chelsea (A)
Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Stoke (H)
Southampton (H)
Tottenham (A)
SOUTHAMPTON (13pts needed)
QPR (H)
Norwich (A)
Liverpool (H)
Chelsea (H)
Reading (A)
West Ham (H)
Swansea (A)
West Brom (H)
Tottenham (A)
Sunderland (A)
Stoke (H)
SEVEN KEY GAMES:-
Reading v Southampton
Reading v QPR
Aston Villa v Reading
QPR v Aston Villa
Wigan QPR
Sunderland v Aston Villa
Wigan v Aston Villa
FINAL TABLE:-
SUNDERLAND 41
SOUTHAMPTON 39
WIGAN 39
-------------------------
ASTON VILLA 36
READING 34
QPR 28